THE IMPENDING COLLAPSE OF THE PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC PARTY: A DESCENT INTO POLITICAL OBLIVION

The political landscape of Nigeria is currently experiencing seismic shifts, with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), once a dominant force, teetering on the brink of unprecedented decline. The recent news of Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State’s imminent defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) serves as a stark emblem of the party's deepening woes, signalling a broader exodus that threatens to relegate the PDP to a mere historical footnote. 

This development, far from being an isolated incident, is part of a larger, more ominous trend that has seen the party's influence wane drastically across various geopolitical zones.Governor Diri’s departure would leave Governor Sim Fubara of Rivers State as the sole PDP governor in the entire South-South geopolitical zone. This is a particularly crushing blow, considering the South-South, alongside the South-East, was historically considered an impregnable stronghold for the PDP. 

The fact that 20 out of the 23 Local Government Area chairmen in Rivers State are now aligned with the APC further underscores the precariousness of Fubara's position and the extent to which the PDP’s grassroots support has eroded even in its traditional bastions. This regional vulnerability is a testament to the party's inability to maintain cohesion and loyalty among its ranks.The South-East, mirroring the South-South's predicament, also now boasts only one PDP governor. This dwindling presence in regions that once overwhelmingly voted for the party highlights a catastrophic failure in political strategy and internal management. 

The party, which once prided itself on its national spread and widespread acceptance, is now confronting a reality where its once vibrant support bases are steadily being chipped away. The phrase "the party started seeing demons" aptly captures the internal strife, mistrust, and power struggles that have plagued the PDP, leading to its current predicament.Beyond these two critical geopolitical zones, the tremors of defection are being felt across the nation. 

Reports indicate that three other governors from different geopolitical zones are also "perfecting their exit" from the PDP. If these defections materialize, the party, which once controlled a staggering 23 out of the nation’s 36 states, would be left with a paltry nine governors. This dramatic reduction in gubernatorial power is not merely a loss of numbers; it signifies a severe erosion of political influence, control over state resources, and the ability to mobilize support at the grassroots level. 

It is a testament to the party's weakened bargaining power and its diminished appeal to political actors seeking a viable platform for their ambitions.The historical trajectory of prominent figures within the PDP offers further insight into its current state of disarray. Olusegun Obasanjo, the first man to become president on the platform of the party, famously tore his party membership card as he exited, a symbolic gesture of disaffection. While he did not formally join another party, his departure set a precedent for high-profile exits. His vice president, Atiku Abubakar, represents a different facet of the PDP's internal struggles – a recurring pattern of ambition-driven defection. Atiku has left the PDP on several occasions, consistently joining new platforms in his persistent, albeit unfulfilled, quest for the presidency. His journey from PDP to ACN, then to APC, and now reportedly poised for ADC, illustrates a lack of ideological commitment and a transactional approach to party loyalty, a characteristic that has arguably become endemic within the PDP's higher echelons.Even those who once held significant leadership positions within the party have abandoned ship. 

David Mark, who served as the longest-serving Senate President under the PDP for two terms during the administrations of President Yar’adua and President Jonathan, has reportedly decamped to the ADC. Similarly, Dimeji Bankole, a once vibrant Speaker of the House of Representatives under the party's banner, left a considerable time ago. This exodus of seasoned politicians and influential leaders not only depletes the party's intellectual and strategic capital but also sends a strong signal to younger, aspiring politicians that the PDP may no longer be a reliable vehicle for political advancement.

The cumulative effect of these defections, particularly the ongoing exodus of governors to the APC, represents the most severe crisis the PDP has faced since its inception in 1998. The party, which once presented itself as the natural ruling party, is now struggling for relevance and survival. The loss of governors is particularly damaging because they are critical power brokers, controllers of state apparatus, and key figures in mobilizing electoral support. 

Their departure not only weakens the party structurally but also saps the morale of its remaining members and supporters.Looking ahead to the 2027 general elections, the implications for the PDP are dire. The narrative being propagated by some is that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is poised for re-election, a prospect made all the more plausible by the ongoing fragmentation of the opposition. The anticipation of two more PDP governors from the North joining the APC, coupled with the potential defection of the last surviving PDP governor in the South-East, paints a bleak picture for the party’s future. These anticipated moves would further solidify the APC’s dominance and significantly weaken the PDP's ability to mount a credible challenge in the next electoral cycle.

In essence, the PDP is facing an existential crisis. Its historical dominance is being systematically dismantled by internal strife, high-profile defections, and an inability to adapt to the evolving political landscape. The party that once symbolized national unity and broad appeal is now shrinking, confined to a dwindling number of states and facing the real possibility of political irrelevance. 

The once mighty umbrella is tattered, and without significant internal reforms, a renewed vision, and a concerted effort to rebuild trust and loyalty, the Peoples Democratic Party risks fading into the annals of Nigerian political history. The current trajectory suggests a complete reordering of the nation's political forces, with the APC emerging as the undisputed hegemon, at least for the foreseeable future.